Szczegóły publikacji
Opis bibliograficzny
Assessing climate change trends and extremes in the Euro-Atlantic sector: the modulating role of stratospheric Polar Vortex Dynamics and jet stream instability (1979–2024) / Jakub Smaga, Mateusz ZARĘBA // Engineering Proceedings [Dokument elektroniczny]. — Czasopismo elektroniczne ; ISSN 2673-4591 . — 2026 — vol. 155 iss. 1 art. no. 20, s. 1-12. — Wymagania systemowe: Adobe Reader. — Bibliogr. s. 11-12, Abstr. — Publikacja dostępna online od: 2026-09-24. — 12th International conference on Time Series and Forecasting : Canaria, Spain, 15–17 July 2026
Autorzy (2)
Słowa kluczowe
Dane bibliometryczne
| ID BaDAP | 170352 |
|---|---|
| Data dodania do BaDAP | 2026-10-05 |
| Tekst źródłowy | URL |
| DOI | 10.3390/engproc2026155020 |
| Rok publikacji | 2026 |
| Typ publikacji | referat w czasopiśmie |
| Otwarty dostęp |  |
| Creative Commons | |
| Czasopismo/seria | Engineering Proceedings |
Abstract
Regional climate variability arises from the interaction between long-term anthropogenic warming and large-scale atmospheric circulation processes. In particular, the coupling between the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), jet stream dynamics, and surface temperature variability remains a critical component of climate variability across the Euro-Atlantic sector. In this study, ERA5 reanalysis data covering the period of 1979–2024 were used to investigate long-term temperature trends, atmospheric circulation changes, and stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models were applied to identify the dominant drivers of surface temperature anomalies, while risk-ratio analysis was employed to quantify the occurrence of anomalous thermal conditions under different circulation regimes. The results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in warming rates across the study domain. Central Europe, represented by Poland, emerged as a pronounced warming hotspot, exhibiting a trend of +0.59 °C decade−1, substantially exceeding warming rates observed over the North Atlantic sector. This enhanced warming was accompanied by increasing jet stream waviness, indicating greater dynamical instability within the Euro-Atlantic circulation system. Diagnostic analyses further demonstrated that stratospheric circulation anomalies propagate downward into the troposphere, providing a measurable source of predictability for surface weather regimes and temperature extremes. These findings suggest that Arctic Amplification is contributing to a reorganization of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation, increasing regional climate variability despite continued background warming. The results highlight the importance of jointly considering thermodynamic warming and atmospheric dynamical processes when assessing future climate risks and extreme weather occurrence in Central Europe.
